Prediction of Precipitation Based on Long-term Teleconnection Signal with Remote Sensing-Based Wavelet Analysis
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Global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies have a demonstrable effect on vegetation dynamics and precipitation patterns throughout the United States. SST variations have been correlated with precipitation via ocean-atmospheric interactions known as climate teleconnections.

Prior research has demonstrated that teleconnections can be used for climate prediction across a wide region at sub-continental scales. Yet these studies rely on traditional teleconnection indices suited for broad regional prediction, making teleconnection identification difficult at the local scale. The highly variable and non-stationary nature of teleconnection patterns further complicates these relationships, with simple linear analyses failing to capture underlying trends. This paper builds upon an earlier short-term study, by exploring a long-term (30-year), teleconnection signal investigation between SST at the North Atlantic and Pacific oceans and the precipitation within Adirondack State Park in upstate New York. The testing site was selected for consistency with the short-term study and to minimize anthropogenic influences. This expanded research tests whether the high or low-frequency signals, detected between 2000 and 2010, are consistent with the longer time domain of 1980 to 2010. The greater time window further permits the investigation of lower frequency interannual teleconnection signals as well as the long-term seasonal variability of the terrestrial response. Unique SST indices are extracted and used in input variables in an artificial neural network (ANN) prediction model. Results demonstrate reasonable prediction skill in the winter months with up to 67% of the land mass accurately forecasting precipitation trends with a lead time of 3 months.

Publication Summary

  • Geosyntec Authors: Lee Mullon
  • All Authors: Lee Mullon, Y. Jeffrey Yang (USEPA), Ni-Bing Chang (UCF), Sanaz Imen (UCF)
  • Title: Prediction of Precipitation Based on Long-term Teleconnection Signal with Remote Sensing-Based Wavelet Analysis
  • Event or Publication: 6th International Conference on Water Resources and Environmental Research
  • Practice Areas: Environmental Management Assessment and Systems, Watershed and Stormwater Management
  • Date: 2013
  • Location: Koblenz, Germany
  • Type: Presentation